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Alright. RFS got diverted from the old school dunks motif for a day by the “Jayhawks, thy name is suckitude” theme. Let’s get back on track. Watch this for one of the best dunk highlights in NCAA tournament history, courtesy of the Texas Tech swingman. This happened in 1998, right in the middle of the explosion in popularity of March Madness - make sure you have the volume up to hear the crowd reaction:

Check out the great Sports Illustrated picture here.

On to the notebook…

1. Texas - As usual, Texas crossed up the official RFS prognostication yesterday.

Here’s the problem, which is the same as it’s always been for Rick Barnes’ Texas teams… they don’t appear to have grasped the concept of team basketball. What I mean is, the essence of college basketball - as it is with synergy in business - is “1+1=3″. Every damn year I watch Texas play, and I can’t see a discernable difference from what would happen if all of those McDonald’s All-Americans just showed up 5 minutes before the season and they rolled the balls out.

To be more specific, an easy way to tell how much a given team grasps the “team concept” - and by definition, how good a given coach is at his job - is their shot selection.

Dribble drives and kick-outs, passing out of the double-team from the post, skip passes, swinging the ball quickly and efficiently. These are all things designed to get quality shots.

I have watched a ton of college basketball over the last 15 years, and I can honestly say that these Rick Barnes Texas teams take more crappy shots (loosely defined as long 3s early in the possession, contested 3s anytime in the possession, and inside shots against double-teams or traps) than any other team I can recall.

The team with the athletic advantage - which Texas should have in 90% or more of its games - by definition should be able to get easier shots. Yet every time I watch them I’m amazed at the number of difficult shots.

Part of this is the dynamic of having a group of superior athletes that have their eyes on an NBA paycheck and are therefore looking to showcase themselves, rather than getting a W. Part of it is Rick Barnes’ recruiting ability (which - make no mistake about it - is UT’s recruiting ability) exceeding his coaching ability. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn’t.

Which means… they’re a wild card. I hate taking either side of any game they’re involved in, and I never pick them to advance very far in the tournament, because consistency is rewarded in that context (see Duke). And I HATE picking them to cover.

To sum it up - to paraphrase a famous economist or statistician that I can’t remember at the moment -

“life has fat tails… and so does Texas against the spread”.

For a more concise (and for that matter, better) explanation of what I’m trying to say, read this article about the Wichita State Shockers.

2. Fearless Prognostications - Here are the picks (with confidence rating in units):

(2 units) Indiana - 13.5 vs. Indiana State

(1 unit) USF - 1.5 vs. Fresno State

(1 unit) Lamar + 24.5 @ Texas A&M

(3 units) Michigan State + 5 vs. Maryland

I think Indiana is a wild card. But what I do know is that their fans (1) still remember the glory days, (2) that they’re tired of being dinged by in-state mid-majors, (3) Butler beat the Hoosiers earlier this week, (4) that Indiana State beat Indiana last year, putting a big-ass nail in Mike Davis’ coffin, and (5) that as a result of those factors, that Kelvin Sampson - who is looking for legimitacy as the head of the program after his recruiting sanctions - is going to have his kids ready to make a statement against the Sycamores. As much as it pains me to pick against the Trees, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a good old-fashioned beat-down happen in Bloomington.

I think San Francisco is a random pick, but they worked for me against Sac State.

I think I don’t know a damn thing about Lamar, and I think I LOVE A&M’s squad. A&M is a team with a non-elite (but still very good) group of players with a GREAT coach in Gillispie. But they’re getting saddled with a Duke-like spread. I hope, and I think it’s possible, that A&M wins by 30… but I don’t think it’s a probability.

I think Michigan State looked VERY strong against Texas, and despite Maryland giving St. John’s (and RFS by extension) a good old-fashioned eye jammy last night, I still think Maryland’s a regular team that just happened to hit on all cylinders. That line is just off. Plus… I hate Gary Williams.

Good luck tonight, and if you like the material, use the Digg button at the end.

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Cumulative Prognostication Record: 6-3-1 (65%)

Cumulative Prognostication Net Units: +7
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