College Basketball Picks - 1/13/07
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Let me say first off that I’m looking back at my picks and I hate them, because I’m ignoring one of the most basic facts in sports:
When picking college basketball, look for reasons to pick against the home team rather than reasons to pick for the visitor. This is based on the general consensus that college basketball has a bigger home court advantage than any other sport.
HOWEVER… as they say on the Street… “the trend is your friend” and I’ve picked several teams that are momentum plays whether they’re at home or on the road. Not to mention the pain incurred by going against your gut, then watching as your gut was right.
Plus, I haven’t done a Pickstravaganza in a while. Here it is:
(1 unit) Marquette - 2 vs. West Virginia
(3 units) James Madison + 20 @ George Mason
(3 units) Indiana - 4.5 @ Penn St
(1 unit) ‘Cuse - 3 vs. ‘Nova
(2 units) Kansas - 11 @ Iowa St
(2 units) Wiscy - 11 @ N-Wern
(2 units) UCLA - 2.5 @ USC
(4 units) So Illy - 2.5 vs. Mo State
(5 units) Texas - 9 vs. OU
(4 units) Texas Tech + 1 @ Baylor
(3 units) Illy St + 3.5 @ Drake
(3 units) Drexel + 2.5 @ Old Dominion
(1 unit) Minny + 11 @ Iowa
(4 units) Washington + 1 @ Cal
(3 units) Indy St - 3 vs. Bradley
(4 units) Washington St + 1 @ Stanford
(1 unit) Xavier - 5 @ SLU
(3 units) ‘Zaga - 4 @ Santa Clara
(1 unit) USF - 1.5 @ Loyola Marymount
(2 units) Nevada + 2.5 @ Hawaii
I liked the way Marquette looked against UConn, snapping their 31-game home court winning streak.
James Madison is getting 20 at George Mason. Even if the Patriots were a great team (which they are not), this is a huge number during a conference season. Maybe JMU totally eats it, but I’m comfortable that I’m capturing the fatter part of the probability curve with 20 points on my side.
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Indiana is one of my “trend is your friend” teams. As I’ve said before, they impressed me earlier in the season and they had two convincing wins against Michigan State and Purdue this week by a combined 49 point margin. As long as Penn State is Penn State… Hoosiers in a walk on the road.
The ‘Cuse is another “trend-friend” squad. Two good wins this week against Marquette and Rutgers, and they return to the friendly confines of the Carrier Dome tonight.
Kansas… maybe my ultimate “trending” team. They are playing really well right now, and their athletic and scoring ability is just scary. They’re giving 11 on the road at Iowa State, and I probably would taken them all the way up to 17. If they even put a money line on this one I’d consider it a nearly risk-free proposition. I’m now going to move on to the next game before I start thinking about Oral Bob and DePaul.
Wisconsin is another team that’s streaking after handling Ohio State earlier in the week. Wiscy makes a statement today against N-Wern.
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UCLA is just a gut feel that is in direct opposition the gut feel I have about USC. USC is a good team and could easily win this outright, but I still like Ben Howland and the Bruins with a tight spread in a road game to which their fans can easily travel.
I can’t even believe I’m picking So Illy, but it’s the ultimate gut pick. They’ve had problems with Mo State in the last few years, but I like them to take care of business at home. Missouri State is riding high, but their shooters have been fairly comfortable so far. Look for the Salukis D to smother and frustrate Blake Ahearn and Tyler Cheney.
If Kansas isn’t my ultimate trending team, then Texas is. Don’t get me wrong… it horrifies me to put that kind of certainty level on a Rick Barnes team that at random intervals appears to play to their weaknesses (shot selection) instead of strengths (size, athleticism, inside presence). But not today - UT embarrasses a really bad OU team in The Drum.
I’ve watched some Texas Tech basketball recently, and they’ve impressed me with their intensity, ball handling, and passing ability (not that you should expect anything less from Bobby Knight). I think the Red Raiders squeak one out against a Baylor team that tested the Aggies earlier in the week.
Illy State beats Drake. Two bottom feeders in the Valley, I gotta go with talent over coaching.
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The Drexel Dragons get back on track against ODU after having a nice 10-game streak snapped in OT by Hofstra. Thanks to George Mason’s Final 4 run, I think the teams in the Colonial smell at-large bids in March… which is gonna make that conference a free-for-all like the Valley was last year.
I know that Minnesota is a team in shambles, but an 11 point spread between two non-contenders in the Big Ten is too much. No guarantees, but the odds are that a mediocre Iowa team has trouble covering 11 against Minny.
Washington is struggling so far in conference, but they’re a dangerous team. They have solid big men, and Pondexter can play with anyone in the country. I’m thrilled to get points with the Huskies, even though Cal is a good team.
Indy State is on a roll as well, unexpectedly hanging near the top of the Valley. I say the Trees keep it up and handle a mediocre Bradley team in Terre Haute.
Washington State looked GREAT in their win against Arizona earlier in the week, and I love getting a point with them against a team like the Cardinal.
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Xavier… eh. Just a feeling since I’ve been impressed with them multiple times this year (particularly against ‘Bama). Drew Lavender is fun to watch. Xavier slays SLU.
‘Zaga has superior talent in Heytvelt, Raivio, and Pargo that Santa Clara can’t match. Throw in secret weapon and RFS all-name team Pierre-Marie Altidor-Cespedes Jingleheimer-Schmidt, and you’ve a got a double-digit win.
USF over Loyola Marymount? Sure! Wait - are you asking me or telling me?
I think Nevada is still a good enough team to take down Hawaii even if All-American and centerpiece Nick Fazekas doesn’t play because of a sprained ankle. This is definitely a gamble, but with a quality team and quality coaching I generally assume that depth is greater than the Vegas line assumes. Show me something, Wolfpack!
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